Monday, December 12, 2011

Odds

Odds is a ratio obtained either from the number of ways  the events could occur and could fail to occur, or from the probabilities  of the complementary events (Gerver, 1997, p. 117).


1 in 3, 1 in 20, 1 in 10,000, 1 in 1 billion. No matter the odd, there is still that 1. And while you can drive yourself mad concentrating on that little number 1, it should always be acknowledged and respected. 

My ob didn't argue with me when I declined genetic testing. His exact words, "Well, you are young and have already had a healthy pregnancy, the chances are slim, I don't see a need to do the blood work." But I was that 1. Despite my low chances, I had a baby with Down syndrome. 

When 3 of the 15 chromosomes tested came back normal, they told me there was a chance Fiona had a rare form of Down syndrome, called Mosaic. It was said lightly, with a quick, "but its so rare, we probably accidentally drew a few of your cells in with hers in the amniotic fluid" But she was that 1. She has Mosaic Down syndrome. 

I have been rereading older posts from when I started writing. I remember that fear that followed me through-out my pregnancy. I was coming to acknowledge and respect that number 1. It was possible. Unlikely was possible. The rare has to happen to someone. And when friends or family or medical staff laughed off or didn't take seriously any of the "what ifs"- whether it be to comfort me or because they didn't respect the 1- it drove me nuts. Its not crazy or unrealistic to worry about being the rare case. 

A very close friend had a rare and uncommon thing happen to her baby girl 2 and a half years ago. Her baby girl had a stoke while she was still in the womb. I have listened to my friend poor out her heart through their journey, and the frustration of not knowing why this happened to Piper (who is thriving and has taken this life by the horns). It has been tossed up as a rare fluke, slim chance of it ever happening again, and with her baby boy due in just two months, they seem to shrug off her worries of being that number 1. 

But then she felt twitching. Twitching that seem to correlate with what she felt with Piper. After the ob-triage did jack to find anything out, Maternal Fetal Medicine took the time to look a little closer. It seems Megan is the 1. The rare case where it could happen more then once because of an antibody that she carries. My blood boiled with this... after all the testing and supervision she has gone through, not one doctor thought to check out this rare antibody that could cause in-utero strokes. Or maybe they thought about it for a split second but chalked it up to being too rare. Very unlikely. But someone has to be that 1. So why did they not check to see if she had this 2 and a half years ago. If there is a chance, it should be taken seriously. And I am not Megan. Imagine how cheated she feels.

Keep Megan and baby Ellis in your prayers. Now that they are aware that this is a not so unlikely chance, actions are in the works to insure a safe delivery. But the unknown is beyond scary. The anxiety is surely at its max. However, there is the other side to odds- when the odds are more likely to be bad, that 1 is what you want.  Never lose hope. Someone has to be that 1.


To find out more about Megan, Piper and what is going on, read her personal blog, The Naptime Experiment. But mainly, keep her in your prayers. Many of my readers have been in the high risk- high anxiety pregnancies, so send her some love and warm thoughts to get her through these upcoming weeks of waiting.




2 comments:

  1. will be praying for sure. Being right there in the high risk pregnancy category for the last pregnancy, which resulted in the most amazing gift I have ever been given, I understand entirely the fear and the worry that grows stronger with each passing day. While in many ways, you so look forward to that day, the day you FINALLY get to meet the baby you have dreamed of for so long, in many other ways, you wish that you were able to keep that same baby safe within the confines of your womb and scared (terrified really) of all of the unknowns that will come when the baby actually arrives.
    God is the Lord of miracles. Praying for the best for your friend and her precious little one

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  2. I will be praying for her as well.

    ReplyDelete

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